A look at the ten contested MA State Senate primaries
Figure 1: MA State Senate Districts (2022)
There are ten State Senate districts with contested primaries. There are three Democratic incumbents with primary challengers—Joan Lovely (D-Salem), Walter Timility (D-Milton), Michael Brady (D-Brockton)—and one Republican with a primary challenge, Patrick O’Connor (R-Weymouth).
There are five open seats. Four of the open seats have a Democratic primary only, and one seat—Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester—has both a Democratic and Republican primary.
| District | PVI | Inc. Pary | Incumbent | primaries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire | D+18 | None | (Adam Hinds—Pittsfield)* | D |
| Hampden and Hampshire | D+6 | Dem | John C. Velis—Westfield | |
| Hampden | D+22 | Dem | Adam Gomez—Springfield | |
| Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester | D+4 | None | (Eric Lesser—Longmeadow)* | D,R |
| Hampshire, Franklin and Worcester | D+23 | Dem | Jo Comerford—Florence | |
| Worcester and Hampshire | EVEN | Dem | Anne M. Gobi—Spencer | |
| Worcester and Hampden | R+2 | GOP | Ryan C. Fattman—Sutton | |
| Second Worcester | D+11 | Dem | Michael O. Moore—Millbury | |
| First Worcester | D+17 | None | (Harriette L. Chandler—Worcester)* | D |
| Worcester and Middlesex | D+8 | Dem | John C. Cronin—Lunenburg | |
| First Middlesex | D+8 | Dem | Edward J. Kennedy Jr.—Lowell | |
| Middlesex and Worcester | D+20 | Dem | James B. Eldridge—Acton | |
| Middlesex and Norfolk | D+20 | Dem | Karen E. Spilka—Ashland | |
| Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex | D+12 | Dem | Rebecca L. Rausch—Needham | |
| Third Middlesex | D+20 | Dem | Michael J. Barrett—Lexington | |
| Fourth Middlesex | D+16 | Dem | Cindy F. Friedman—Arlington | |
| Norfolk and Middlesex | D+32 | Dem | Cynthia Stone Creem—Newton | |
| Norfolk and Suffolk | D+18 | Dem | Michael F. Rush—West Roxbury | |
| First Essex | D+15 | None | (Diana DiZoglio—Methuen)* | D |
| Second Essex and Middlesex | D+6 | Dem | Barry R. Finegold—Andover | |
| First Essex and Middlesex | D+10 | GOP | Bruce E. Tarr—Gloucester | |
| Second Essex | D+12 | Dem | Joan B. Lovely—Salem | D |
| Fifth Middlesex | D+16 | Dem | Jason M. Lewis—Winchester | |
| Third Essex | D+13 | Dem | Brendan P. Crighton—Lynn | |
| Third Suffolk | D+21 | Dem | Lydia Marie Edwards—Boston | |
| Middlesex and Suffolk | D+32 | Dem | Sal N. DiDomenico—Everett | |
| Second Middlesex | D+32 | Dem | Patricia D. Jehlen—Somerville | |
| Suffolk and Middlesex | D+32 | Dem | William N. Brownsberger—Belmont | |
| Second Suffolk | D+42 | None | (Sonia Chang-Diaz—Boston)* | D |
| First Suffolk | D+30 | Dem | Nicholas P. Collins—South Boston | |
| First Plymouth and Norfolk | D+9 | GOP | Patrick O’Connor—Weymouth | R |
| Norfolk and Plymouth | D+9 | Dem | John F. Keenan—Quincy | |
| Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol | D+11 | Dem | Walter F. Timilty—Milton | D |
| Second Plymouth and Norfolk | D+14 | Dem | Michael D. Brady—Brockton | D |
| Bristol and Norfolk | D+8 | Dem | Paul R. Feeney—Foxborough | |
| Third Bristol and Plymouth | R+1 | Dem | Marc R. Pacheco—Taunton | |
| First Bristol and Plymouth | D+1 | Dem | Michael J. Rodrigues—Westport | |
| Second Bristol and Plymouth | D+7 | Dem | Mark C. Montigny—New Bedford | |
| Plymouth and Barnstable | D+4 | Dem | Susan Lynn Moran—Falmouth | |
| Cape and Islands | D+12 | Dem | Julian A. Cyr—Truro | R |
In the following sections focusing on each district/primary race, the map shows a measure of partisanship (PVI) of each town (or precinct in districts where cities or towns are split), overlaps of any incumbent districts, and a small dot indicating the home region of each candidate.
Figure 2: Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Paul W. Mark | D | Becket | $48,446 | $38,288 | $100,345 |
| N | Huff Tyler Templeton, III | D | Williamstown | $4,040 | $64 | $3,976 |
| N | Brendan M. Phair | U | Pittsfield | $2,155 | $1,738 | $628 |
The newly created and enormous Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire district contains 57 cities and towns in Western Massachusetts. The incumbent of the existing and similarly named Berkshire, Hampshire, Franklin and Hampden district, Adam Hinds (D-Pittsfield) ran an unsuccessful campaign for Lieutenant Governor, leaving this district without an incumbent senator.
The Democratic primary will feature sitting State Representative Paul Mark (D-Becket) whose current Second Berkshire State Representative district is outlined in the map, and Williamstown former small business owner and local municipal board member Huff Templeton III. Representative Mark will have an advantage as about 20% of the Senate district’s Democratic primary voters will have seen him on the ballot (using an average of vote totals from previous elections), and likely will have voted for him in the past.
The D+18 Partisan Voter Index (PVI) will make the winner of the Democratic primary the prohibitive favorite in November’s general election against unenrolled candidate Brendan Phair of Pittsfield.
Figure 3: Hampden, Hampshire and Worcesterm
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Sydney R. Levin-Epstein | D | Longmeadow | $90,336 | $18,616 | $71,720 |
| N | Jacob R. Oliveira | D | Ludlow | $52,999 | $27,565 | $41,186 |
| N | John Harding | R | East Longmeadow | $2,775 | $2,775 | $0 |
| N | William E. Johnson | R | Granby | $73,627 | $18,980 | $55,180 |
The new Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester district is closely related to the previous First Hampden and Hampshire district currently held by Eric Lesser (D-Longmeadow) who is running for Lieutenant Governor. It is the only state senate seat to feature both a Democratic and Republican primary in 2022.
On the Democratic side, first term State Representative Jacob Oliveira (D-Ludlow) faces campaign strategist Sydney Levin-Epstein of Longmeadow. The dashed line on map shows the overlap of the Oliveira-held Seventh Hampden State Rep district.
Oliveira comes off a hotly contested State Rep win where he defeated Republican James “Chip” Harrington by 134 votes after a recount. Perennial candidate Harrington is running for state rep again against Democrat Aaron Saunders of Belchertown.
Levin-Epstein served as Deputy Finance Director for Ed Markey’s 2020 re-election campaign and is bringing her political organizing experience to bear on her own campaign this year.
The two GOP candidates are John Harding of East Longmeadow, a former military office, and William Johnson, a business owner from Granby.
Figure 4: Hampden, Hampshire and Worcesterm
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Robyn K. Kennedy | D | Worcester | $67,238 | $41,717 | $25,521 |
| N | Joseph M. Petty | D | Worcester | $97,524 | $81,655 | $64,727 |
| N | Lisa K. Mair | U | Berlin | $4,739 | $1,740 | $2,999 |
Senator Harriet Chandler (D-Worcester) is retiring after a 31-year career in public service. There are two Democrats vying for the Democratic nomination in the First Worcester district, comprised of much of Worcester, Boylston, West Boylston, Northborough, Berlin, and Bolton.
Robyn Kennedy of Worcester is the Executive Director or the YWCA of Central Massachusetts and has the backing of former Governor Deval Patrick and his Worcester-based Lt. Governor Tim Murray.
Joseph Petty has been serving as the mayor of Worcester since 2012 and has gained the endorsement of Senator Ed Markey.
Despite the Markey endorsement for Petty, Kennedy has been getting support from many of the more progressive groups. Petty has been running on his experience, presenting an establishment candidate message.
Petty started with $48,859 in his mayoral campaign account when he changed its purpose to the State Senate seat in February, 2022, giving him a big head start over Kennedy who was starting from scratch. Kennedy has since raised approximately two thirds as much as Petty, spent about half, and had about 40% of Petty’s cash on hand as of the end of July.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face undeclared candidate Lisa Mair of Berlin who is running on a platform of informed medical consent and lower taxes. The Democrat will have a strong advantage in this D+17 district.
Figure 5: First Essex Senate Districtm
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Pavel Payano | D | Lawrence | $58,892 | $32,622 | $44,228 |
| N | Doris V. Rodriguez | D | Lawrence | $4,838 | $4,533 | $177 |
| N | Eunice Delice Zeigler | D | Methuen | $50,347 | $25,303 | $35,060 |
As mentioned in ourredistricting post, the First Essex district is a new majority-Hispanic district containing all of Lawrence, all of Methuen, and some inner precincts of Haverhill. There is no incumbent senator running as Diana DiZoglio (D-Methuen) is running for auditor.
Pavel Payano is an at-large City Councilor in Lawrence; Doris Rodriguiez is a tax layer from Lawrence with public and private sector experience; and Eunice Zeigler is a City Councilor from Methuen. Payano and Zeigler have been able to raise and spend similar amounts of campaign funds.
A look at the total number of votes from each of the cities in the precincts contained in the First Essex District show that over 50% of the votes come from Lawrence, while 26% come from Methuen, and 23% from Haverhill, giving the Lawrence candidates somewhat of an advantage.
| city_town | votes | percent |
|---|---|---|
| Haverhill | 1,321,958 | 23% |
| Lawrence | 2,884,272 | 51% |
| Methuen | 1,442,136 | 26% |
Figure 6: Second Essex State Senate Districtm
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y | Joan B. Lovely | D | Salem | $37,113 | $22,060 | $94,370 |
| N | Kyle Alexander Davis | D | Danvers | $27,568 | $27,970 | $1,211 |
| N | Damian M. Anketell | R | Peabody |
Assistant Majority Leader Joan Lovely (D-Salem) faces a primary challenge from Kyle Davis of Danvers. Davis has pursued a career as an artist and performer, supporting himself with day jobs as a waiter and food delivery driver, and is running in a attempt to diversify the legislature with people from atypical political backgrounds.
Senator Lovely’s fundraising isn’t particularly strong for an incumbent State Senator, but challenger Davis’s numbers are weaker than they appear based on totals. The $27-28,000 raised and spent numbers seem reasonable until you look at the particulars. There was a mistaken transfer into the account of $15,000 (since transfered out) and a mistaken personal expense written as a check from the account for $2,483 (since returned), combined with candidate loans to the campaign of $2,400 and $1,500 which brings the actual amount raised from non-candidate sources to $6,185.
The winner for the Democratic primary will face Republican Damian Anketell who seems to have previously run for Essex County Sheriff as a Democrat. Anketell has been featured at Mass. GOP events promoted by Howie Carr to get a referendum question on the ballot to deny drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants. Anketell has made the extraordinary move of filling out Office of Campaign and Political Finance (OCPF) from CPF D104 which states that he will not raise or expend campaign funds in this race.
The D+12 district will likely go to the Democrat, regardless of primary outcome, but the incumbency advantage of Lovely would make it highly unlikely for a GOP pickup, especially with the promise of no money raised or spent by the GOP candidate.
Figure 7: Second Suffolk State Senate Districtm
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Miniard Culpepper | D | Boston | $157,273 | $45,935 | $111,338 |
| N | Nika Elugardo | D | Jamaica Plain | $102,324 | $111,936 | $10,545 |
| N | James E. Grant | D | Boston | $217 | $0 | $216 |
| N | Liz Miranda | D | Boston | $172,074 | $188,753 | $13,935 |
| N | Dianne Wilkerson | D | Roxbury | $11,375 | $9,546 | $1,830 |
Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz (D-Boston) decided to run for Massachusetts Governor, rather than for re-election to the State Senate, leaving the true blue Second Suffolk District as an open seat. There are five candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, although James Grant does not seem to pursuing a strong campaign, raising money, or participating in debates. The primary winner will take office in January, given that no non-Democratic candidates qualified for the race, not to mention its status as the most Democratic Massachusetts state senate district with a whopping PVI of D+42.
There are two sitting State Representatives in the race for the Second Suffolk. Nika Elguardo (D-Jamaica Plain) represents the 15th Suffolk State Representative District (dotted outline in the map), and Liz Miranda (D-Boston) represents the 5th Suffolk State Representative District (dashed outline in the map). Neither of these state representative districts overlaps with Second Suffolk State Senate district to a large extent.
Miniard Culpepper is a Baptist minister, lawyer, community activist, and former regional counsel for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Diane Wilkerson is a former State Senator who plead guitly to extortion charges and spent two and a half years in prison. Wilkerson is attempting to make a political comeback, counting on voters to forgive the transgressions for which she has paid a steep price.
Culpepper, Elugardo, and Miranda have all raised serious amounts of campaign money. Miranda wins the fundraising and spending titles so far, having raised $172,074 and spent $188,753. Elugardo has raised $102,324 and spent $111,936 this year. Culpepper raised more than Elugardo in the same period, $157,273, but has only spent $45,935. It is not quite to the point as of July 31 filing that having Culpepper’s $111,338 left in the bank is a liability, but the closer it gets to primary day, the less useful unspent dollars become.
Figure 8: First Plymouth and Norfolk District
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | D | Hanson | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Y | Patrick Michael O’Connor | R | Weymouth | $68,481 | $64,169 | $104,450 |
| N | Ronald J. Patuto | R | Marshfield | $6,700 | $0 | $6,700 |
Senator Patrick O’Connor (D-Weymouth) is the only incumbent GOP senator to face electoral opposition in 2022. O’Connor is widely considered a moderate Republican in the Massachusetts vein. He did vote against the final version of the MA ROE Act, citing issues of expanding third trimester abortions and removal of most parental consent, but is a proponent of clean energy and universal full-day kindergarten.
Senator O’Connor faces Marshfield Republican Ronald Patuto in the GOP primary. There isn’t a great deal of campaign information about Patuto on the internet, but a radio forum on WATD has Patuto arguing for less regulation of the lobstering business where he gets his livelihood, and against public school mask mandates.
While I am not publishing model-based predictions for the primaries, this race is one where the general election model shows a big difference between the probability of a GOP general election win if O’Connor, the incumbent wins the primary (93% likelihood of GOP win), and if Patuto, the challenger wins the primary (21% likelihood of GOP win). This contrast demonstrates the power of incumbency and the fact that this moderate-for-MA state senate district (it is the 13th most Republican-leaning State Senate District) has as a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+9, making it an easy-enough Democratic target without a moderate incumbent Republican on the ballot.
However, the Democratic candidate for the First Plymouth and Norfolk District, Robert Stephens Jr. Hanson, is nowhere to be found on the internet and has not raised any campaign funds as of July 31.
Figure 9: Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol District
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y | Walter F. Timilty | D | Milton | $50,677 | $66,894 | $45,785 |
| N | Kathleen Crogan-Camara | D | Randolph | $43,661 | $31,686 | $11,975 |
| N | Brian R. Muello | R | Braintree | $1,000 | $0 | $1,000 |
State Senator Walter Timilty (D-Milton) is considered on the conservative side of the Massachusetts Democratic Party. One recent example would be his “No” vote on the MA ROE Act to expand and codify the right to an abortion in Massachusetts.
Timilty’s challenger for the Democratic nomination is Kathleen Crogan-Camara who is running on a platform promoting disability rights, but is also challenging Timilty with a much more progressive view on issues like women’s reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and immigrant rights. Crogan-Camara has gotten the endorsement of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund and has raised enough money to run a creditable campaign.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face another perennial candidate, Republican Brian Muello of Braintree who has run unsuccessfully for Mayor of Braintree, Braintree selectman, Braintree Town Clerk, and U.S. Senate.
Figure 10: Second Plymouth and Norfolk
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y | Michael D. Brady | D | Brockton | $45,741 | $22,693 | $47,231 |
| N | Katrina M. Huff-Larmond | D | Randolph | $17,314 | $15,355 | $1,959 |
| N | Jim Gordon | R | Hanson | $7,548 | $5,775 | $1,773 |
Another incumbent State Senator facing both a Democratic primary and a Republican general election challenger is Michael Brady (D-Brockton). As mentioned in our redistricting post, the Second Plymouth and Norfolk district is also newly minted majority minority district with 49% White, 35% Black, 8% Hispanic, and 3% Asian in terms of voting age population. However, the black citizen voting age population is only 28% of the electorate, making this a difficult district for a black voting block to elect its candidate of choice.
Senator Brady has weathered some challenges over the past several years, having been arrested for drunk driving in 2018 and being stripped of his committee chairmanship. Brady has since been re-instated to his leadership positions, presumably after serving out his probation with a dismissal of charges as per agreement.
Challenger Katrina Huff-Larmond, a Randolph Town Councilor, is campaigning on change, leadership, a deeper connection with the people. In addition, Huff-Larmond participated in the redistricting process and created a more diverse senate district in the process. Huff-Larmond has raised $17,314 for the race so far, not insignificant, but still at a disadvantage to Brady’s larger and longer-term campaign funds.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Jim Gordon of Hanson who is running on a platform for parental review of educational material, restoring qualified immunity for law enforcement, and cutting taxes while increasing infrastructure spending. The simple model I use for estimating general election results based on PVI, incumbency, and whether it is a presidential voting year gives Gordon a 2 out of 100 chance of winning against Brady and a 1 out of 10 chance at beating Huff-Larmond.
Figure 11: Second Plymouth and Norfolk
| Inc | Candidate | Party | city_town | receipts | spent | cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y | Julian Andre Cyr | D | Truro | $105,481 | $54,105 | $290,804 |
| N | Daralyn Andrea Heywood | R | West Barnstable | $17,140 | $9,066 | $8,074 |
| N | Christopher Robert Lauzon | R | Mills Village | $12,106 | $9,664 | $2,443 |
State Senator Julian Cyr is free from Democratic primary challengers in 2022, but will face the winner of a two-way Republican primary in November. It is quite unlikely that the Republican nominee will unseat incumbent Cyr in the D+12 Cape and Islands District.
Daralyn Heywood is a private investigator and former State Police lieutenant running on a anti-illegal immigrant and pro-America platform.
Christopher Lauzon is a former cruise deck-hand who now works in a family-owned auto repair business in Hyanis. Lauzon is running on a platform of lowering taxes, reducing regulation, and supporting and defending law enforcement.
Both GOP candidates have raised at the lower end of the spectrum for credible state senate challenger campaign funds, and are nowhere close to Senator Cyr’s ability to raise, spend, and save campaign cash.