No major surprises when comparing race results to model fundamentals
There were no major surprises in the contested Massachusetts state legislative elections on November 8, 2022. The State Representative race that looked like it would be the most competitive based on our fundamentals-based model (1st Middlesex) did turn out incredibly close and has not yet been called. Another race that looked reasonably safe (2nd Essex) ended up closer than expected and has not been called by the AP. A State Senate race that looked close from a fundamentals point of view (Hampden, Hampton and Worcester) came down safely in Democratic territory, as did a race where pundits felt GOP strength might win out (Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex).
The model expected a nail-biter in the 1st Middlesex State Representative race between Margaret Scarsdale (D-Pepperell), Andrew Shepherd (R-Townsend), and independent candidate Catherine Lundeen (I-Pepperell) and nail-biter is what we got. As of this writing, Shepherd looks to be ahead by 34 votes out of 19,633 votes cast, a margin of 0.17 percentage points. The race seems to be headed for a recount.
The biggest surprise of the night was the tight margin in the 2nd Essex State Representative race between incumbent Rep. Leonard Mirra (R-Georgetown) and challenger Kristin Kassner (D-Hamilton). The model expected a high-single digit two-party margin in favor of Mirra, but the current count shows a tiny 84 vote lead out of 23,114 votes case, a margin of 0.36 percentage points. This race has also not been officially called by the Associated Press. The results are still inside the 90% error bars of the model, but it is an outlier.
On the State Senate side our model rated the Hampden, Hampton and Worcester District—the post-redistricting version of the district represented by Lt. Governor candidate Eric Lesser (D-Longmeadow)—as the most competitive race. A reader who understood the specifics of this race gave the opinion that State Rep. Oliveira (D-Ludlow) held a strong advantage over business person William Johsnon (R-Granby) based on the structure of the district and the influence of Oliveira’s State Representative district. Tuesday’s result seemed to bear that out with Oliveira getting 56% of the two-party vote, not close, but still well within the 90% confidence interval of the model.
I took a fairly close look at the Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex state senate race between incumbent Senator Becca Rausch (D-Needham) and sitting State Rep. Shawn Dooley (R-Norfolk). There seemed to be some conventional wisdom that the race would be close because of the red-to-purple reputation of the district in its previous incarnation as the Norfolk, Worcester and Bristol with former GOP State Senators Richard Ross (R-Wrentham) and Scott Brown (R-Wrentham).
However, the district is full of towns that have swung in the Democratic direction since the Trump era. This swing pushed the model to have high expectations of a Rausch win. Rausch’s victory with 55% of the two-party vote was fairly comfortable, and could have been higher if not for the strong name recognition of Rep. Dooley in the area and the large amount of money spent on boths sides. It is hard to see this district as purple anymore with its D+12 Partisan Voter Index.
| Contested State Rep results | ||||||||||
| district | PVI | Incumbent | Winner | Margin | Model | D | R | other | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | margin | High | ||||||||
| 7th Plymouth | R+1 | GOP | GOP | −26 | −24 | −13 | −2 | Sullivan (R-Abington) | Griffin (W-Whitman) | |
| 7th Worcester | R+1 | GOP | GOP | −25 | −23 | −12 | −1 | Frost (R-Auburn) | Dotson (U-Millbury) | |
| 1st Bristol | D+6 | GOP | GOP | −17 | −18 | −7 | 4 | Roche (D-Mansfield) | Barrows (R-Mansfield) | |
| 8th Plymouth | R+1 | GOP | GOP | −10 | −24 | −13 | −2 | Haikola (D-Raynham) | D'Emilia (R-Bridgewater) | |
| 3rd Hampden | R+7 | GOP | GOP | −10 | −28 | −17 | −6 | Russo (D-Agawam) | Boldyga (R-Southwick) | |
| 11th Worcester | D+12 | GOP | GOP | −9 | −14 | −2 | 9 | Fishman (D-Shrewsbury) | Kane (R-Shrewsbury) | |
| 1st Plymouth | D+3 | GOP | GOP | −8 | −20 | −9 | 2 | Palmer (D-Plymouth) | Muratore (R-Plymouth) | |
| 3rd Barnstable | D+6 | GOP | GOP | −6 | −17 | −7 | 5 | Alfano (D-Bourne) | Vieira (R-Falmouth) | |
| 22nd Middlesex | D+1 | GOP | GOP | −5 | −22 | −11 | 0 | English (D-Billerica) | Lombardo (R-Billerica) | |
| 5th Plymouth | EVEN | GOP | GOP | −2 | −23 | −12 | 0 | Dockter (D-Hanover) | Decoste (R-Norwell) | |
| 9th Norfolk | D+6 | GOP | −1 | −7 | 4 | 15 | Kalkut (D-Norfolk) | Vaughn (R-Wrentham) | ||
| 2nd Essex | D+9 | GOP | Unk1 | 0 | −16 | −5 | 6 | Kassner (D-Hamilton) | Mirra (R-Georgetown) | |
| 1st Middlesex | D+2 | Unk1 | 0 | −11 | 1 | 12 | Scarsdale (D-Pepperell) | Shepherd (R-Townsend) | Lundeen (I-Pepperell) | |
| 4th Worcester | D+5 | Dem | Dem | 2 | −1 | 10 | 21 | Higgins (D-Leominster) | Dombrowski (U-Leominster) | |
| 7th Hampden | D+6 | Dem | 3 | −7 | 4 | 15 | Saunders (D-Belchertown) | Harrington (R-Ludlow) | ||
| 8th Bristol | R+2 | Dem | Dem | 3 | −6 | 4 | 16 | Schmid (D-Westport) | Gendreau (R-Westport) | |
| 2nd Worcester | R+1 | Dem | Dem | 3 | −6 | 5 | 17 | Zlotnik (D-Gardner) | Chester (R-Gardner) | |
| 1st Barnstable | D+9 | Dem | 4 | −5 | 6 | 17 | Flanagan (D-Dennis) | Post (R-Yarmouth) | Kasparian (WTP-Yarmouth) | |
| 14th Essex | D+8 | Dem | 2 4 | −6 | 5 | 17 | Ramos (D-North Andover) | Finn (R-North Andover) | ||
| 5th Bristol | R+1 | Dem | Dem | 4 | −6 | 5 | 16 | Haddad (D-Somerset) | Thurber (R-Somerset) | |
| 12th Plymouth | D+1 | Dem | Dem | 4 | −4 | 6 | 17 | Lanatra (D-Kingston) | Meschino (R-Plymouth) | Mccoy (NP-Kingston) |
| 19th Middlesex | EVEN | Dem | Dem | 6 | −6 | 6 | 17 | Robertson (D-Wilmington) | Sarnowski (R-Wilmington) | |
| 6th Plymouth | D+3 | Dem | Dem | 6 | −3 | 8 | 19 | Cutler (D-Duxbury) | Sweezey (R-Hanson) | |
| 10th Bristol | D+2 | Dem | Dem | 6 | −3 | 7 | 18 | Straus (D-Mattapoisett) | Swift (R-Mattapoisett) | |
| 3rd Bristol | D+5 | Dem | Dem | 7 | −2 | 10 | 21 | Doherty (D-Taunton) | Coute (R-Taunton) | |
| 17th Worcester | D+15 | Dem | Dem | 9 | 5 | 17 | 28 | Leboeuf (D-Worcester) | Fullen (R-Worcester) | |
| 1st Essex | D+12 | Dem | 9 | −3 | 9 | 20 | Shand (D-Newburyport) | Fitzwater (R-Salisbury) | ||
| 18th Essex | D+10 | Dem | Dem | 10 | 2 | 13 | 24 | Nguyen (D-Andover) | Dufour (R-Tewksbury) | |
| 2nd Bristol | D+6 | Dem | Dem | 10 | −1 | 10 | 21 | Hawkins (D-Attleboro) | Escobar (R-Attleboro) | |
| 12th Worcester | D+6 | Dem | Dem | 10 | −1 | 10 | 21 | Kilcoyne (D-Clinton) | Vulcano (R-Northborough) | |
| 9th Plymouth | D+8 | Dem | Dem | 10 | 0 | 11 | 23 | Cassidy (D-Brockton) | Novak (R-Brockton) | |
| 36th Middlesex | R+3 | Dem | Dem | 11 | −8 | 3 | 14 | Garry (D-Dracut) | Boag (R-Dracut) | |
| 2nd Barnstable | D+6 | Dem | Dem | 12 | −1 | 10 | 21 | Diggs (D-Barnstable) | Peters (R-Barnstable) | |
| 3rd Worcester | D+9 | Dem | Dem | 13 | 1 | 13 | 23 | Kushmerek (D-Fitchburg) | Packard (R-Fitchburg) | |
| 10th Norfolk | D+9 | Dem | Dem | 14 | 1 | 13 | 24 | Roy (D-Franklin) | Bailey (R-Franklin) | |
| 4th Norfolk | D+7 | Dem | Dem | 14 | 0 | 11 | 23 | Murphy (D-Weymouth) | Rotondo (R-Weymouth) | |
| 8th Hampden | D+4 | Dem | 15 | −9 | 2 | 14 | Arriaga (D-Chicopee) | Goonan (I-Chicopee) | ||
| 2nd Middlesex | D+14 | Dem | Dem | 15 | 5 | 16 | 27 | Arciero (D-Westford) | Xie (R-Westford) | |
| 8th Middlesex | D+17 | Dem | 15 | 1 | 12 | 24 | Arena-Derosa (D-Holliston) | Barnes (R-Millis) | ||
| 16th Middlesex | D+11 | Dem | 15 | −4 | 7 | 18 | Elliott (D-Lowell) | Miller (R-Lowell) | ||
| 2nd Franklin | D+6 | Dem | Ind | 17 | −1 | 10 | 21 | Whipps (I-Athol) | Raymond (R-Athol) | Mckeown (U-Gill) |
| 19th Worcester | D+18 | Dem | 17 | 2 | 13 | 24 | Donaghue (D-Westborough) | Hostage (R-Southborough) | ||
| 8th Norfolk | D+17 | Dem | Dem | 2 19 | 7 | 18 | 30 | Philips (D-Sharon) | Terban (R-Stoughton) | |
| 5th Essex | D+16 | Dem | Dem | 2 19 | 7 | 18 | 29 | Ferrante (D-Gloucester) | Sullivan (R-Gloucester) | |
| 2nd Norfolk | D+15 | Dem | Dem | 20 | 6 | 17 | 29 | Chan (D-Quincy) | Cintolo (R-Quincy) | |
| 28th Middlesex | D+20 | Dem | Dem | 21 | 10 | 21 | 32 | Mcgonagle (D-Everett) | Marchese (U-Everett) | |
| 31st Middlesex | D+13 | Dem | Dem | 21 | 5 | 16 | 27 | Day (D-Stoneham) | Menounos (I-Winchester) | |
| 11th Suffolk | D+28 | Dem | 23 | 9 | 20 | 31 | Garcia (D-Chelsea) | Taylor (R-Chelsea) | ||
| 14th Middlesex | D+22 | Dem | 23 | 5 | 16 | 27 | Cataldo (D-Concord) | Cleaves (R-Chelmsford) | ||
| 5th Suffolk | D+42 | Dem | 39 | 20 | 31 | 42 | Worrell (D-Boston) | Owens (I-Boston) | ||
| 3rd Berkshire | D+23 | Dem | Dem | 2 40 | 12 | 23 | 34 | Pignatelli (D-Lenox) | Lavery (GR-Becket) | |
| 14th Norfolk | D+25 | Dem | Dem | 42 | 13 | 25 | 36 | Peisch (D-Wellesley) | Rolde (GR-Weston) | |
| 1 Winner has not been called by AP | ||||||||||
| 2 Not all results reported | ||||||||||
| Contested State Senate results | ||||||||||
| district | PVI | Incumbent | Winner | Margin | Model | D | R | other | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | margin | High | ||||||||
| First Essex and Middlesex | D+10 | GOP | GOP | 1 −22 | −15 | −4 | 7 | Tarr (R-Gloucester) | Cudney (I-Gloucester) | |
| First Plymouth and Norfolk | D+9 | GOP | GOP | −11 | −16 | −5 | 6 | Stephens (D-Hanson) | O'Connor (R-Weymouth) | |
| Third Bristol and Plymouth | R+1 | Dem | Dem | 4 | −6 | 5 | 16 | Pacheco (D-Taunton) | Collins (R-Taunton) | |
| Worcester and Hampshire | EVEN | Dem | Dem | 4 | −5 | 6 | 16 | Gobi (D-Spencer) | Amorello (R-Holden) | |
| Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex | D+12 | Dem | Dem | 5 | 4 | 15 | 25 | Rausch (D-Needham) | Dooley (R-Wrentham) | |
| Plymouth and Barnstable | D+4 | Dem | Dem | 6 | −3 | 9 | 20 | Moran (D-Falmouth) | Macrae (R-Bourne) | |
| Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester | D+4 | Dem | 6 | −9 | 2 | 13 | Oliveira (D-Ludlow) | Johnson (R-Granby) | ||
| Second Essex and Middlesex | D+6 | Dem | Dem | 7 | −1 | 10 | 21 | Finegold (D-Andover) | Defranco (R-Haverhill) | |
| First Bristol and Plymouth | D+1 | Dem | Dem | 7 | −4 | 6 | 18 | Rodrigues (D-Westport) | Protentis (R-Lakeville) | |
| Worcester and Middlesex | D+8 | Dem | Dem | 10 | 0 | 11 | 23 | Cronin (D-Lunenburg) | Hoyt (R-Westford) | |
| Bristol and Norfolk | D+8 | Dem | Dem | 10 | 1 | 12 | 23 | Feeney (D-Foxborough) | Chaisson (R-Foxborough) | Saylor (W-Mansfield) |
| Norfolk and Plymouth | D+9 | Dem | Dem | 13 | 1 | 13 | 24 | Keenan (D-Quincy) | Innes (R-Hanover) | |
| Fifth Middlesex | D+16 | Dem | Dem | 13 | 6 | 18 | 29 | Lewis (D-Winchester) | Dombroski (R-Wakefield) | |
| Second Plymouth and Norfolk | D+14 | Dem | Dem | 13 | 5 | 16 | 27 | Brady (D-Brockton) | Gordon (R-Hanson) | |
| Cape and Islands | D+12 | Dem | Dem | 1 13 | 4 | 15 | 26 | Cyr (D-Truro) | Lauzon (R-Barnstable) | |
| Hampden and Hampshire | D+6 | Dem | Dem | 16 | −1 | 10 | 21 | Velis (D-Westfield) | Calabrese (R-Agawam) | |
| Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol | D+11 | Dem | Dem | 16 | 3 | 14 | 25 | Timilty (D-Milton) | Muello (R-Braintree) | |
| Second Essex | D+12 | Dem | Dem | 18 | 4 | 15 | 26 | Lovely (D-Salem) | Anketell (R-Peabody) | |
| Third Essex | D+13 | Dem | Dem | 21 | 4 | 15 | 26 | Crighton (D-Lynn) | Sulustri (I-Swampscott) | |
| Middlesex and Worcester | D+20 | Dem | Dem | 21 | 10 | 21 | 32 | Eldridge (D-Acton) | Christakis (R-Wayland) | |
| First Worcester | D+17 | Dem | 24 | 1 | 12 | 24 | Kennedy (D-Worcester) | Mair (U-Berlin) | ||
| Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire | D+18 | Dem | 1 26 | 2 | 13 | 24 | Mark (D-Becket) | Phair (U-Pittsfield) | ||
| 1 Not all results reported | ||||||||||