Archive

Posts from the original Mass. Numbers blog on Blogger, 2012-2022

Mass. Numbers ran on Blogger from November 2012 until August 2022. These posts are ported from that site with their original dates and text; each links to its Blogger original.

Announcing the new Mass. Numbers

The blog will now include code and data, along with analysis

Aug 21, 2022
Brent Benson

A look at Biden’s 2020 performance in Massachusetts compared to Clinton in 2016

Biden did better overall with some evidence of underperformance in municipalities with large numbers of hispanic voters

Nov 14, 2020
Brent Benson

Comparing the latest Markey/Kennedy US Senate polls

Markey leads by an average of 10 points with few positives for Kennedy

Aug 29, 2020
Brent Benson

Partisanship, education, and income were significant factors in MA presidential primary vote share

The big story out of the Super Tuesday Presidential primaries was the unprecedented Biden surge that put the former Vice President in the strongest position to win the 2020 Democratic nomination.

Mar 6, 2020
Brent Benson

Which Massachusetts cities and towns are getting more Republican or Democratic?

When comparing presidential margins, it comes down to Trumpiness

Nov 1, 2018
Brent Benson

An overview of Massachusetts 3rd Congressional district and primary candidates

Results of the September 4 primary will likely determine the race

Aug 31, 2018
Brent Benson

Over-performance in Fitchburg pushed Tran over the top in Worcester and Middlesex special election

Zephir slightly over-performed compared to a modeled result in most other towns

Dec 6, 2017
Brent Benson

A look at the Worcester and Middlesex State Senate special election

Another classic swing district special election

Dec 5, 2017
Brent Benson

Polls and preliminary data point toward a Walsh victory in Boston mayoral race

A remarkably consistent margin has separated Walsh and Jackson in polls and preliminary voting

Nov 6, 2017
Brent Benson

All signs point to a close outcome in Tuesday’s Bristol and Norfolk state senate special election

Bristol and Norfolk is a prototypical swing district

Oct 15, 2017
Brent Benson

What do you get when you run 20,000 simulations of the 55 contested MA state legislature races?

A few competitive nail biters and a likelihood of similar partisan make-up to today

Oct 17, 2016
Brent Benson

A look at geography and fundraising in the 1st Suffolk and Middlesex special primary

Diverse district spans Cambridge, Beacon Hill, North End, East Boston, Revere, and Winthrop

Apr 10, 2016
Brent Benson

Clinton likely to win big on Super Tuesday

Clinton’s worst-case scenario is winning six out of nine primaries

Feb 27, 2016
Brent Benson

A look at the 3rd Worcester, 9th Plymouth, and 12th Essex special state primaries

Candidates vie to replace DiNatali, Brady, and Cole on February 2nd

Feb 1, 2016
Brent Benson

State Senate race between Brady and Diehl is a tale of two districts

Precinct-by-precinct analysis shows 2nd Plymouth and Bristol district split between Democratic Brockton and right-leaning suburbs

Nov 1, 2015
Brent Benson

Special election for 11th Worcester seat gives advantage to GOP but is winnable by either Palitsch or Kane

Massachusetts political history has shown it is difficult to unseat an incumbent legislator.

Mar 24, 2015
Brent Benson
 

State Senate 2015-2016 Democratic majority leadership and committee assignments

Massachusetts State Senate President Stan Rosenberg announced leadership and committee assignments for the Democratic members of the Senate for the 2015-2016 legislative session.

Jan 22, 2015
Brent Benson

Boston Olympics poll shows taxpayer funding a primary concern of opponents

Respondents who support Boston’s bid believe funding will come from private sources, opponents think taxpayers will foot the bill

Jan 20, 2015
Brent Benson

Massachusetts gubernatorial polls were less biased than national midterm polls

A look at the polling average and a comparison of each pollster’s last poll to the final result

Nov 6, 2014
Brent Benson

Money from Massachusetts GOP shadow group fails to unseat targeted state representatives

Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance spending on immigrants-over-veterans mailings had little affect on race outcomes

Nov 5, 2014
Brent Benson

A data supplement to legislative races to watch article

District partisan lean and pre-election fundraising data for competitive legislative races

Nov 3, 2014
Brent Benson

Not all survey methods are equal in 2014 midterm race polling

Many midterm races have seen a similar method-based bias as the Massachusetts gubernatorial race (internet+Dem, IVR+GOP), but others show the opposite

Nov 3, 2014
Brent Benson

There are significant differences between IVR, live operator, and internet polls of the race for Massachusetts governor

Which polling methodology is seeing the right set of voters won’t be known until after Tuesday’s election

Oct 31, 2014
Brent Benson

A comprehensive look at polling of all four ballot questions provides an indicator of likely results

Baker disagrees with voter consensus on gas tax and earned sick time while Coakley and the average voter disagree on bottle bill expansion

Oct 29, 2014
Brent Benson

Polling methodology seems to be playing a roll in Massachusetts gubernatorial survey results

IVR polls are 6 points better for Baker/GOP

Oct 16, 2014
Brent Benson

Recent polling shows a robust coalition against repeal of Massachusetts casino law

Most Republicans, Independents, and men support gaming law—Democrats are split down the middle

Oct 13, 2014
Brent Benson

Massachusetts 2014 Governor’s race general election polling averages

A look at all of the public polls with topline, gender, and party averages

Sep 30, 2014
Brent Benson

Globe poll showing Baker lead has a surprisingly large leap in male support

Poll shows Coakley/Baker male gender gap greater than any statewide GOP winner in last 16 years

Sep 25, 2014
Brent Benson

The rise of internet polling—more adults have internet access than a landline telephone

One surprising graph tells the story

Sep 16, 2014
Brent Benson

Charlie Baker’s underperformance was three times greater than Martha Coakley’s

Baker underperforms polling by 24 points, Coakley by 8

Sep 10, 2014
Brent Benson

What are the regional strengths of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates?

What polling tells us about areas of strength and weakness for the primary candidates

Sep 9, 2014
Brent Benson

How definitive are the Democratic Primary polls for Governor, LG, AG, and treasurer?

One race is easy—the rest have some favorites but no clear winner

Sep 8, 2014
Brent Benson

My finely crafted model for winning the Boston Magazine primary prediction contest and why it is likely to lose

Is it possible to predict how many votes a candidate will get in a low turnout primary?

Sep 5, 2014
Brent Benson
 

A look at the money going in and out of the MA legislative primary races

Looking at the most and least expensive primary campaigns

Sep 4, 2014
Brent Benson

Polling Averages for 2014 Massachusetts Governor’s Race

Including averages for name recognition, the Democratic primary race, and select general election match-ups

Aug 12, 2014
Brent Benson

Revere tornado is first in Suffolk County since 1950

A look at the frequency of tornadoes in Massachusetts counties

Jul 28, 2014
Brent Benson

Globe article underestimates voter support for Governor Patrick’s plan to house immigrant children

Support of 50% to 43% is a sizable advantage, even with 4.9% margin of error

Jul 24, 2014
Brent Benson

Latest Massachusetts gubernatorial poll shows a sharp uptick in name recognition for lesser-known candidates

But candidates still have a significant ground to make up

Jun 9, 2014
Brent Benson

An overview of the 2014 Massachusetts State Senate races and candidates

About half of the 40 State Senate seats have challengers in 2014

Jun 3, 2014
Brent Benson

An updated partisan ranking of Massachusetts State Representative districts

Including a model of Democratic margin and win probability

May 27, 2014
Brent Benson

New poll in Massachusetts Governor’s race shows little increase in name recognition

Only three candidates are known by a majority of the respondents

May 23, 2014
Brent Benson

Adjusting MA governor polls for name recognition gives clearer picture of Democratic candidate potential

Adjustment shows three candidate tiers: Coakley > Grossman, Kayyem, Berwick > Avellone

Apr 17, 2014
Brent Benson

The April 1 special election surprise was not Jason Lewis’s 5th Middlesex win

Redistricting changes point toward similar results if Lewis is challenged in November

Apr 6, 2014
Brent Benson

Polling of Massachusetts Governor’s race still a story of mostly unknown candidates

Democratic ballot test performance driven by name recognition of candidate

Mar 21, 2014
Brent Benson

A comprehensive history of NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Final Four seeds from 1985 through 2013

Only 16 out of 116 Final Four teams have been seeded greater than four

Mar 17, 2014
Brent Benson

Fifth Middlesex Senate seat likely to remain blue

Redistricting changes removed GOP stronghold of Lynnfield and added Democratic precincts in Winchester and Melrose

Mar 9, 2014
Brent Benson

A rundown of the five March 4 special state primaries

One primary is inconsequential, the remainder will likely determine winner of general election

Mar 2, 2014
Brent Benson

Who is way ahead in MA Governor polling? The candidate whose name voters know

Party schisms are not the reason for difference between Coakley’s lead in polls and Grossman’s lead in caucus delegates

Feb 20, 2014
Brent Benson
 

The democratization of data journalism

A report on theMassINC Big Data and the Future of Journalism panel discussion

Feb 12, 2014
Brent Benson

MA Governor polling takeaway: low name recognition makes head-to-head numbers meaningless

Martha Coakley is only candidate known to a majority of voters

Feb 4, 2014
Brent Benson

Reps Ashe, Petrolati, and Puppolo could run for Candaras Senate seat

Puppolo’s campaign war chest may be a deciding factor

Jan 21, 2014
Brent Benson

It is not clear that independent candidates hurt Charlie Baker’s chances in 2014

Claim was made that Cahill hurt Baker in 2010, but polling shows he was a non-factor

Nov 21, 2013
Brent Benson

Endorsements of Walsh by Arroyo, Barros and Richie had a profound effect on election outcome

Walsh won almost all of the precincts secured by his endorsers in the preliminary, increasing his margin and securing thousands of votes

Nov 7, 2013
Brent Benson

Suffolk poll suggests Boston mayoral endorsements are having an effect

The most recent poll from Suffolk University for the November 5 Boston mayoral election suggest that endorsements of State Representative Marty Walsh by preliminary candidates Felix Arroyo, John Barros, and Charlotte…

Nov 4, 2013
Brent Benson

Suffolk poll provides more evidence that Walsh has overtaken Connolly for lead in Boston mayoral race

Walsh has seen a steady rise in the polls and now leads the time-weighted polling average

Nov 1, 2013
Brent Benson

Boston mayoral polling average shows a tie between Connolly and Walsh

Walsh surpasses Connolly in latest UMass poll while UNH poll bucks trends

Oct 31, 2013
Brent Benson

Clark’s 5th Middlesex senate district overlaps seven house districts but only three representatives

On Tuesday, October 15 Katherine Clark handily won the Democratic primary to replace Ed Markey as U.S. Representative for the Fifth Congressional District.

Oct 16, 2013
Brent Benson

Suffolk mayoral poll gives first look at Walsh and Connolly’s head-to-head regional strengths

On October 7 the Suffolk University Political Research Center released the first head-to-head Boston mayoral poll between City Councilor John Connolly and State Representative Marty Walsh.

Oct 8, 2013
Brent Benson

A look at polling averages, fundraising, and district overlap in competitive MA-5 Democratic primary

Clark leads in polling averages and fundraising, Sciortino ad making a difference, **Koutoujian has been on the ballot for more MA-5 voters

Sep 30, 2013
Brent Benson

A map of Boston mayoral precinct winners shows a remarkable neighborhood effect

Candidates other than Walsh and Connolly were able to show neighborhood strength

Sep 26, 2013
Brent Benson

Boston mayor polling averages show John Connolly as clear leader

Walsh in second place, Richie gaining, Conley holding on

Sep 19, 2013
Brent Benson

Partisan rankings for tomorrow’s three State Rep. special elections indicate likely Democratic wins

On Tuesday, September 10 there will be three special elections to fill vacant State Representative seats, the 12th Suffolk District in Dorchester, the 16th Worcester District in the southern part of Worcester, and the…

Sep 9, 2013
Brent Benson

Massachusetts union membership increasing despite downward national trend

Union membership has been steadily declining in the United States since the 1970s and shows few signs of slowing at a national level as more states establish restrictions on public employee and other labor unions.

Sep 2, 2013
Brent Benson

Charlie Baker’s problem isn’t lack of personality, it’s that nobody knows who he is

Baker’s name recognition numbers incredibly low for a recent gubernatorial candidate

Aug 22, 2013
Brent Benson

Candidates for the three open State Rep. seats

Special state primaries to be held on Tuesday, August 13

Aug 12, 2013
Brent Benson

Knapik resignation leaves opening for Democratic Senate pickup in 2nd Hampden and Hampshire

Strength of candidate and ability to turn out voters in Holyoke and Easthampton will be key

Aug 6, 2013
Brent Benson

Can the GOP win the 16th Worcester MA House special election?

Massachusetts Republicans are hoping Carol Claros can pull off a repeat of Leah Cole’s 12th Essex special election win in Peabody

Jul 23, 2013
Brent Benson

Boston mayoral poll shows Marty Walsh with strong regional support

The recent Suffolk University/Boston Herald poll of the race for Boston Mayor showed a race without a strong front-runner, with many candidates struggling for name recognition, and with 40% of the likely voters…

Jul 18, 2013
Brent Benson

Democrats Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren followed different paths to statewide victory in Massachusetts

While the last two elections for U.S. Senator in Massachusetts resulted in a 10 point victory by Ed Markey over Gabriel Gomez and an 8 point victory by Elizabeth Warren over Scott Brown, Markey and Warren showed that…

Jul 1, 2013
Brent Benson

Polling average nailed the Markey/Gomez Massachusetts Senate result

On Tuesday, June 25, Congressman Ed Markey defeated financier Gabriel Gomez with a 54.8% share of the vote to Gomez’s 44.8% share.

Jun 26, 2013
Brent Benson

A comprehensive pre-election overview of the Markey/Gomez polling

There have been 16 independent polls of the match-up to replace John Kerry in U.S. Senate between Congressman Ed Markey and financier Gabriel Gomez spanning the beginning of May through June 20th.

Jun 24, 2013
Brent Benson

A Gomez win over Markey very unlikely even if GOP targets are reached

An article written by Alexandra Joffe in The Hill congressional newspaper reports that the Republican Party sees a narrow path to victory for Gabriel Gomez against Ed Markey in the Massachusetts special election to…

Jun 15, 2013
Brent Benson

Latest Markey/Gomez polls show very slight tightening of race

Markey still holds strong lead with two weeks left

Jun 11, 2013
Brent Benson

Latest Markey/Gomez poll is more of the same: evidence of a solidifying Markey lead

Yesterday, New England College released another poll of the Ed Markey/Gabriel Gomez special senate election race and it does little to change the evidence that Congressman Markey has a sizable lead.

Jun 5, 2013
Brent Benson

Gomez will have a hard time overcoming Markey’s 16 point lead with women voters

Markey has consistent lead in the numbers and on the issues

Jun 4, 2013
Brent Benson

A large independent voter turnout is unlikely to bring Gomez a victory over Markey

Some recent news coverage on the topic of the Massachusetts Senate special election seems to imply that a large turnout of independent voters and a low turnout for Democrats would lead to a Gabriel Gomez victory on June…

May 28, 2013
Brent Benson

Making sense of the Markey/Gomez poll differences

Differences are probably due to polling method and likely voter screen—averaging gives a better estimate of Markey’s actual lead over Gomez

May 9, 2013
Brent Benson

An interactive map of the First Suffolk State Senate election results

You can click on the map below to access an interactive version with precinct-by-precinct results for the Boston part of the First Suffolk State Senate Democratic primary election between Rep.

May 2, 2013
Brent Benson

Polling of Markey/Lynch race converged on actual result

Congressman Ed Markey defeated Congressman Stephen Lynch in the Democratic primary on April 30 by 57% to 43%, a 14 point margin.

May 1, 2013
Brent Benson

Polls show college-educated voters more aware of Senate election

And also more likely to vote for Markey

Apr 29, 2013
Brent Benson

Collins and Forry outraise Dahill in First Suffolk race

The Democratic candidates for the First Suffolk State Senat race have filed their pre-primary campaign finance reports in preparation for the April 30 election to replace State Sen. Jack Hart. State Rep.

Apr 24, 2013
Brent Benson

Polling average shows Markey with strong chance to win April 30 primary

The Democratic primary for the Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election is one week away and Congressman Ed Markey has led Congressman Steve Lynch in every poll conducted.

Apr 22, 2013
Brent Benson

A look at the First Suffolk State Senate race

State Senator Jack Hart’s unexpected decision to step down from his First Suffolk Senate seat has lead to a Democratic primary scramble including Fourth Suffolk House District Representative Nick Collins of South…

Apr 4, 2013
Brent Benson

Senate candidates desperately struggling for name recognition

Markey still on favorable trajectory

Mar 26, 2013
Brent Benson

Senate candidates struggle for name recognition

Only Markey breaks 50 percent mark in poll

Mar 7, 2013
Brent Benson

From Capuano’s 7th to Tierney’s 6th, a partisan ranking of MA Congressional districts

While all nine Massachusetts Congressional districts were won by Democrats in November, the districts are by no means equally liberal.

Jan 31, 2013
Brent Benson

Poll analysis: Most voters still unfamiliar with likely Democratic Senate candidates

The press release for last week’s MassINC poll of the upcoming special election for Senate touted strong performance by possible candidate Scott Brown versus some Democratic contenders.

Jan 28, 2013
Brent Benson

Gov. Patrick’s tax proposal would mean the same or lower rates for most taxpayers

A more progressive structure shifts burden from lowest-income payers

Jan 20, 2013
Brent Benson

How important is seeding to NFL playoff success?

A one or two seed has won the Superbowl 68% of the time since 1990

Jan 9, 2013
Brent Benson
 

What qualifications are advantageous for MA U.S. Senate candidates?

A history of open Senate races in Massachusetts since 1926

Jan 3, 2013
Brent Benson

How strong is Scott Brown’s position for upcoming Senate special election?

Brown looks almost as good as he did early in the 2012 contest

Dec 20, 2012
Brent Benson

Do contested primaries help or hurt candidates for governor in Massachusetts?

Republicans have seen success limiting primary fights

Nov 26, 2012
Brent Benson

A partisan ranking of Massachusetts House districts

Rankings, challenging districts, and redistricting shifts

Nov 18, 2012
Brent Benson

How Democratic or Republican is my town?

A partisan ranking of MA municipalities from P-Town to Lynnfield

Nov 15, 2012
Brent Benson

Warren realizes largest gains in working-class cities

Martha Coakley’s loss to Scott Brown in the January 19, 2010 special election to replace Senator Ted Kennedy was a shock to the Massachusetts political establishment.

Nov 13, 2012
Brent Benson
No matching items