Swing district incumbents facing tough challenges
A look at the four most competitive state legislative races
In addition we provide forecasts for all 57 contested Massachusetts State Representative and State Senate races on the November 3, 2026 ballot.
Incumbency provides a big advantage in legislative elections. Our Massachusetts legislative model shows a 9-point lift for incumbent Democrats and a 16-point lift for incumbent Republicans, holding the other model factors equal. But incumbents in swing districts that lean towards the other party often face challengers and sometimes a loss. The 2010 cycle was particularly hard on incumbent Democrats in the post-2008 Obama win GOP midterm wave. Two Republicans State Reps that rode that wave to victory in 2010 face Democratic challengers on November 3 that may be able to to pull off hard-fought wins.
The four most competitive state legislative races in Massachusetts feature three GOP incumbents in Democratic-leaning districts with partisan voter indexes (PVIs) of D+3 to D+9, and incumbent Democrat Steven Ouellette (D-Westport) in his R+4 8th Bristol district on the South Coast.
| The four most competitive legislative races | ||||||
| District | PVI | Incumbent | Challenger | Incumbent win | Likely margin | 75% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th Norfolk | D+7 | Marcus S. Vaughn (R-Wrentham) | Thomas R. Melville (D-Medfield) | 55% | R+2 | R+16 to D+13 |
| 8th Bristol | R+4 | Steven J. Ouellette (D-Westport) | Jesse W. St. Gelais (R-Acushnet) | 57% | D+2 | R+13 to D+17 |
| 9th Essex | D+3 | Donald H. Wong (R-Saugus) | Peter Meaney (D-Lynn) | 58% | R+3 | R+17 to D+12 |
| 3rd Barnstable | D+9 | David T. Vieira (R-Falmouth) | Jack Peter Richardson (D-Falmouth) | 41% | D+3 | R+12 to D+17 |
9th Norfolk
The tightest race from the model’s point of view is between incumbent State Representative Marcus Vaughn (R-Wrentham) and Democratic newcomer Thomas Melville (D-Medfield). While the 9th Norfolk district has a PVI of D+7, it has not been represented by a Democrat since 1993, when Jo Ann Sprague (R-Walpole) led a succession of Republicans including her successor Scott Brown (R-Wrentham). Brown went on to the State Senate and then defeated Martha Coakley (D-Medford) in a January 2010 special election to replace Edward Kennedy in the U.S. Senate. Melville is running on a campaign of engagement and community service and raised almost twice the amount of campign money raised by incumbent Vaughn ($65,494 to $35,721 in 2026).
8th Bristol
The 8th Bristol State Representative district is a mirror image of the 9th Norfolk in that it has been represented by a Democratic representative for many years, but has a GOP-leaning PVI rating of R+4. Steven Ouellette (D-Westport) was elected for the first time in 2024 in a five-way race against Christopher Thrasher (R-Westport) and three unenrolled candidates including the current GOP nominee Jesse St. Gelais (R-Acushnet). The South Coast area has seen a great deal of back-and-forth partisan shifting in the Trump era. Challenger St. Gelais has raised 20% more money over the past two years and spent four times more than Ouellette, a notably large spending gap.
9th Essex
Representative Donald Wong (R-Saugus) has represented the North Shore’s 9th Essex district since 2011, after his 383-vote defeat of Mark Falzone (D-Saugus) in the 2010 GOP wave election. The 9th Essex district has a PVI of D+3, giving Lynn dentist and city councilor Pete Meaney (D-Lynn) a fighting chance in a year when anti-GOP and anti-incumbent sentiment seems to be high. Meaney was able to significantly outraise and outspend Wong, which may help to improve name recognition while competing against the well-known incumbent.
3rd Barnstable
Incumbent Representative David Vieira (R-Falmouth) also flipped his House seat from blue to red in the 2010 GOP wave, defeating long-time incumbent Matthew Patrick (D-Falmouth) to take office in 2011. The D+9 PVI in the 3rd Barnstable district gives Falmouth Select Board member Jack Richardson (D-Falmouth) a real chance, enhanced by the fundraising and spending advantage he had over Vieira during the election cycle.
Ratings for all contested seats
Our newly revamped Massachusetts legislative election model uses precinct-level PVI, incumbency status, and fundraising data and is trained on data from 2010 through 2024. You can look at more details and do what-if calculations on the model website.
Here are the forecast ratings for all of the contested State Representative and State Senate races.
Contested State Representative and State Senate races. Use the layer control to switch chambers.
| Contested 2026 legislative race ratings | |||||||
| Office | District | PVI | Incumbent | Democrat | Opponent | Model | Dem margin (75% range) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | 9th Norfolk | D+7 | GOP | Thomas R. Melville (D-Medfield) | Marcus S. Vaughn (R-Wrentham)* | R+2 | |
| House | 8th Bristol | R+4 | Dem | Steven J. Ouellette (D-Westport)* | Jesse W. St. Gelais (R-Acushnet) | D+2 | |
| House | 9th Essex | D+3 | GOP | Peter Meaney (D-Lynn) | Donald H. Wong (R-Saugus)* | R+3 | |
| House | 3rd Barnstable | D+9 | GOP | Jack Peter Richardson (D-Falmouth) | David T. Vieira (R-Falmouth)* | D+3 | |
| House | 9th Bristol | D+1 | Edward M. Pacheco (D-Dartmouth) | Chester M. Tam (R-Dartmouth) | D+5 | ||
| House | 1st Worcester | D+4 | Krista Suzanne Ferrante (D-Princeton) | Stephanie R. Mulroy (R-Holden) | D+6 | ||
| House | 6th Plymouth | D+4 | GOP | Jessica Marie Rushing (D-Pembroke) | Kenneth Peter Sweezey (R-Duxbury)* | R+8 | |
| House | 5th Plymouth | D+1 | GOP | Lori Childs (D-Rockland) | David F. DeCoste (R-Norwell)* | R+9 | |
| House | 20th Middlesex | D+4 | Joseph Markey (D-Lynnfield) | Trevor David Currier (R-Middleton) | D+9 | ||
| House | 2nd Worcester | EVEN | Michael Joseph Nicholson (D-Gardner) | John D. Reilly, Jr. (U-Ashburnham) | D+11 | ||
| House | 8th Plymouth | EVEN | Dem | Dennis C. Gallagher (D-Bridgewater)* | John Edward Norris (R-Bridgewater) | D+13 | |
| House | 22nd Middlesex | D+2 | GOP | Daniel Ronald Darris-O'Connor (D-Billerica) | Marc T. Lombardo (R-Billerica)* | R+14 | |
| House | 5th Bristol | R+2 | GOP | Jamison D. Souza (D-Somerset) | Justin E. Thurber (R-Somerset)* | R+14 | |
| Senate | Worcester & Hampshire | D+1 | GOP | Shannon M. Teabo (D-West Brookfield) | Peter J. Durant (R-Spencer)* | R+15 | |
| House | 2nd Hampden | D+5 | Dem | Brian Michael Ashe (D-Longmeadow)* | Peter Warren (R-Monson) | D+15 | |
| House | 7th Bristol | D+1 | Dem | Alan Silvia (D-Fall River)* | Talos D. Farris (R-Fall River) | D+16 | |
| House | 2nd Plymouth | R+2 | GOP | Sarah G. Hewins (D-Carver) | John Robert Gaskey (R-Carver)* | R+16 | |
| House | 7th Worcester | D+1 | GOP | Nicholas Lazzaro (D-Millbury) | Paul K. Frost (R-Auburn)* | R+16 | |
| Senate | 2nd Bristol and Plymouth | D+4 | Dem | Mark C.W. Montigny (D-New Bedford)* | Robert Scott McConnell (R-Fairhaven) | D+16 | |
| House | 6th Bristol | D+3 | Dem | Carole A. Fiola (D-Fall River)* | Robert G. Anctil (R-Freetown) | D+17 | |
| House | 3rd Bristol | D+5 | Dem | Lisa M. Field (D-Taunton)* | Lawrence Joseph Quintal (R-Taunton) | D+17 | |
| House | 18th Essex | D+11 | Connor A. Murray (D-Andover) | Christopher C. Shepley (R-Andover) | D+19 | ||
| House | 7th Plymouth | EVEN | GOP | Rosemary Aahanna-Hill (D-Whitman) | Alyson M. Sullivan-Almeida (R-Abington)* | R+19 | |
| House | 9th Plymouth | D+9 | Dem | Bridget Marie Plouffe (D-Brockton)* | Lawrence Peter Novak (R-Brockton) | D+19 | |
| House | 15th Essex | D+3 | Dem | Ryan M. Hamilton (D-Methuen)* | Ronald L. Heiseler, III (R-Haverhill) | D+19 | |
| House | 4th Hampden | EVEN | GOP | Colby Walshe Hoffman (D-Westfield) | Kelly W. Pease (R-Westfield)* | R+20 | |
| Senate | 1st Bristol and Plymouth | R+1 | Dem | Michael J. Rodrigues (D-Westport)* | Gabriel Boomer Amaral (R-Fall River) | D+20 | |
| House | 1st Middlesex | D+5 | Dem | Margaret R. Scarsdale (D-Pepperell)* | Christopher M. Lyons (R-Ashby) | D+22 | |
| House | 12th Plymouth | D+2 | Dem | Kathleen LaNatra (D-Kingston)* | Eric J. Meschino (R-Plymouth) | D+23 | |
| House | 12th Worcester | D+8 | Dem | Meghan Kilcoyne (D-Clinton)* | Lisa K. Mair (R-Berlin) | D+23 | |
| House | 3rd Hampden | R+6 | GOP | Thomas D. Hendrickson (D-Agawam) | Nicholas A. Boldyga (R-Southwick)* | R+23 | |
| House | 18th Worcester | R+4 | GOP | Jenifer Heck (D-Sutton) | Joseph D. McKenna (R-Sutton)* | R+24 | |
| House | 2nd Essex | D+11 | Dem | Kristin Elena Kassner (D-Hamilton)* | Daniel James Kelly (R-Ipswich) | D+24 | |
| House | 1st Plymouth | D+5 | Dem | Michelle L. Badger (D-Plymouth)* | David Michael Golden, Jr. (R-Plymouth) | D+24 | |
| House | 10th Bristol | D+2 | Dem | Mark D. Sylvia (D-Fairhaven)* | Brendalee A. Smith (R-Fairhaven) | D+25 | |
| House | 4th Worcester | D+6 | Dem | Natalie Marie Higgins (D-Leominster)* | Josh William Bowdridge (R-Leominster) | D+25 | |
| Senate | 1st Middlesex | D+7 | Dem | Vanna Howard (D-Lowell)* | Sam Meas (R-Lowell) | D+26 | |
| House | 16th Middlesex | D+13 | Lorena G. Betts (D-Chelmsford) | Karla J. Miller (R-Lowell) | D+26 | ||
| Senate | Norfolk and Plymouth | D+9 | Dem | John F. Keenan (D-Quincy)* | Alexander Mendez (I-Quincy) | D+26 | |
| House | 6th Worcester | R+2 | GOP | Jeanne Renaud Costello (D-Charlton) | John J. Marsi, Jr. (R-Charlton)* | R+28 | |
| Senate | Plymouth and Barnstable | D+6 | Dem | Dylan A. Fernandes (D-Falmouth)* | Kari Della MacRae (R-Bourne) | D+28 | |
| Senate | 2nd Essex and Middlesex | D+8 | Dem | Barry R. Finegold (D-Andover)* | Theodore T. Semesnyei (R-Amesbury) | D+33 | |
| House | 2nd Bristol | D+7 | Dem | James Kimball Hawkins (D-Attleboro)* | Andrew Nelson (WP-Attleboro) | D+33 | |
| House | 31st Middlesex | D+15 | Dem | Michael Seamus Day (D-Stoneham)* | Stephen G. Ternullo (R-Stoneham) | D+34 | |
| House | 1st Barnstable | D+11 | Christopher Lambton (D-Dennis) | Joe B. Glynn (GWV-Yarmouth) | D+35 | ||
| House | 5th Essex | D+18 | Dem | Andrew Francis Robert Tarr (D-Gloucester)* | Christina Delisio (R-Manchester-By-The-Sea) | D+39 | |
| Senate | Worcester and Middlesex | D+9 | Dem | John Cronin (D-Fitchburg)* | Ming Zhang (U-Westford) | D+41 | |
| House | 1st Franklin | D+24 | Lora L. Wondolowski (D-Greenfield) | Amy E. Lavallee (U-Whately) | D+44 | ||
| House | 2nd Norfolk | D+15 | Dem | Tackey Chan (D-Quincy)* | Sharon Marie Cintolo (R-Quincy) | D+46 | |
| House | 5th Hampden | D+16 | Dem | Patricia A. Duffy (D-Holyoke)* | Jose Ramon Candelario Gonzalez (I-Holyoke) | D+49 | |
| House | 5th Norfolk | D+6 | Dem | Mark J. Cusack (D-Braintree)* | Stephen M. Foley (U-Braintree) | D+50 | |
| House | 4th Suffolk | D+18 | Dem | David M. Biele (D-Boston)* | Charles J. Delaney (I-Boston) | D+51 | |
| House | 5th Middlesex | D+26 | Dem | David Paul Linsky (D-Natick)* | Luisa A. Cestari (R-Natick) | D+55 | |
| Senate | Middlesex and Worcester | D+21 | Dem | James Bradley Eldridge (D-Marlborough)* | Joseph Timothy Shea (R-Acton) | D+56 | |
| House | 35th Middlesex | D+21 | Dem | Paul J. Donato (D-Medford)* | James C. Seibel (R-Medford) | D+60 | |
| House | 10th Suffolk | D+25 | Dem | William F. MacGregor (D-Boston)* | Devin Allen Kreinbring (WP-Boston) | D+61 | |
| Senate | Suffolk and Middlesex | D+33 | Dem | William N. Brownsberger (D-Belmont)* | Brandon Charles Wood (U-Belmont) | D+81 | |