Winners, losers, and surprises
Results of the 57 contested legislative races compared to our forecast
Incumbent defeats, party flips, and a teenage challenger’s upset in the 2026 Massachusetts legislative elections.
There were 57 contested State Representative and State Senate seats in the November 3, 2026, Massachusetts general election. We published a forecast for these races, which was based on our legislative model that is trained on legislative elections from 2010 through 2024. We will look at the races we expected to be the most competitive, consider a notable upset, present the complete results, and look at how the results compared to the model in aggregate.
Results of the four closest forecast races
The races that looked to be the most competitive according to the model featured three Republican incumbents and one Democratic incumbent, all in swing districts. Two of the incumbents, Marcus Vaughn (R-Wrentham) and Donald Wong (R-Saugus), survived their challenges, while Steven Ouellette (D-Westport) and David Vieira (R-Falmouth) were defeated.
| District |
Candidates and votes
|
Margin (points)
|
Outcome
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Republican | Observed margin | Model margin | Party control | Incumbency | |
| 9th Norfolk | Thomas R. Melville (D-Medfield) 10,241 votes |
Marcus S. Vaughn (R-Wrentham)* 11,252 votes |
R+4.7 | R+1.8 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| 8th Bristol | Steven J. Ouellette (D-Westport)* 8,546 votes |
Jesse W. St. Gelais (R-Acushnet) 9,006 votes |
R+2.6 | D+2.2 | D to R flip | Incumbent defeated |
| 9th Essex | Peter Meaney (D-Lynn) 8,305 votes |
Donald H. Wong (R-Saugus)* 10,166 votes |
R+10.1 | R+2.6 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| 3rd Barnstable | Jack Peter Richardson (D-Falmouth) 12,308 votes |
David T. Vieira (R-Falmouth)* 11,483 votes |
D+3.5 | D+2.8 | R to D flip | Incumbent defeated |
| Unofficial AP results; snapshot November 06, 2026, 12:53 UTC. AP calls and precincts reporting are separate measures. | ||||||
| Bold indicates the AP-called winner. * Incumbent. | ||||||
9th Norfolk
State Representative Marcus Vaughn (R-Wrentham) slightly outperformed the model’s central forecast of a 1.8-point GOP win by finishing 4.7 points ahead of challenger Thomas Melville (D-Medfield), keeping this longtime Republican seat. The seat was previously held by Shawn Dooley (R-Norfolk), Richard Ross (R-Wrentham), and Scott Brown (R-Wrentham), who went on to serve in both the Massachusetts Senate and the U.S. Senate.
8th Bristol
The 8th Bristol State Representative district, with towns straddling Fall River and New Bedford, will have a Republican representative in Jesse St. Gelais (R-Acushnet) after being in Democratic hands for more than half a century. St. Gelais outperformed the forecast’s D+2.2 Democratic margin by almost five points for an R+2.6 win over first-term incumbent State Representative Steven Ouellette (D-Westport). Ouellette won his hometown of Westport and the district’s three precincts of Fall River, while St. Gelais won the district’s precincts of Freetown, Acushnet, and New Bedford.
9th Essex
The model saw State Representative Donald Wong (R-Saugus) as a 2.6-point favorite over challenger Peter Meaney (D-Lynn) in the North Shore’s 9th Essex district. Wong won by a ten-point margin to earn a ninth term by running up a 22-point margin in Saugus and winning by 2 points in Wakefield. Meaney won the two precincts of Lynn by about 7 points. Wong was first elected State Representative in the red wave of 2010.
3rd Barnstable
The other incumbent from our focus group to lose his seat on Tuesday was David Vieira (R-Falmouth), another Republican who was also first elected as State Representative 16 years ago in 2010. Jack Richardson (D-Falmouth) pushed things just over the model’s projection of a 2.8-point Democratic margin to a 3.5-point victory. Richardson was able to outraise and outspend Vieira, often a difficult accomplishment for a challenger.
Tuesday’s biggest surprise: The 22nd Middlesex
State Representative Marc Lombardo (R-Billerica), like Vieira and Wong, was elected in the 2010 red wave and has earned a reputation as one of Massachusetts’s most conservative legislators. The model predicted an almost 15-point victory for Lombardo against his Democratic challenger based on his incumbency, the presidential voting history of the district, and his fundraising advantage.
The biggest surprise from the legislative elections on Tuesday ended up being 19-year-old Daniel Darris-O’Connor (D-Billerica) and his 2.5-point victory over incumbent Lombardo. Darris-O’Connor is a sitting member of the Billerica select board and will assume office the day after his 20th birthday in January.
| District |
Candidates and votes
|
Margin (points)
|
Outcome
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Comparison candidate | Observed margin | Model margin | Party control | Incumbency | |
| 22nd Middlesex | Daniel Ronald Darris-O’Connor (D-Billerica) 8,968 votes |
Marc T. Lombardo (R-Billerica)* 8,530 votes |
D+2.5 | R+13.6 | R to D flip | Incumbent defeated |
| Unofficial AP results; snapshot November 06, 2026, 12:53 UTC. AP calls and precincts reporting are separate measures. | ||||||
| Bold indicates the AP-called winner. * Incumbent. | ||||||
The 22nd Middlesex district is one of four Massachusetts State Representative districts that consist of a single, wholly contained municipality. The other three are the 4th Worcester (Leominster), 2nd Berkshire (Pittsfield), and 7th Essex (Salem).
Results for all contested seats
Of the 57 contested State Representative and State Senate seats, eight were open seats with no incumbent running and 49 were incumbent challenges. Three of the 49 incumbents were defeated, and a fourth trails in the uncalled 2nd Plymouth race.
| Outcomes across 57 contested races | |||
| Incumbency | Count | Party | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent re-elected | 45 | D hold | 39 |
| Incumbent defeated | 4 | R to D flip | 5 |
| Open-seat win | 8 | D to R flip | 1 |
| R hold | 12 | ||
| Total | 57 | Total | 57 |
| Unofficial AP results; snapshot November 06, 2026, 12:53 UTC. AP calls and precincts reporting are separate measures. | |||
| Some results are provisional. | |||
In terms of party, 39 of the 57 contested seats were Democratic-held seats that stayed Democratic. Democrats won four Republican-held seats and lead in a fifth, the uncalled 2nd Plymouth race. One Democratic-held seat was won by a Republican (St. Gelais over Ouellette in the 8th Bristol), and 12 Republican-held seats were held by the GOP.
Results of all 57 contested legislative races
The table of districts and outcomes is sorted by the size of Democratic or Republican over- or under-performance compared to the model, which can also be thought of as model error.
It is notable that the biggest differences from the model’s predictions were instances of Democratic over-performance against a non-Republican candidate. We have seen that races between Democrats and non-Republican opponents are harder for the model to predict, with testing on Dem/non-GOP races showing an absolute error of about 15 points, compared with 8 points for Dem/GOP matchups. In addition, the model tends to underestimate Democratic margins in Dem/non-GOP races. The 2026 results follow that same pattern.
| Office | District |
Candidates and votes
|
Margin (points)
|
75% model range | Error (pp) |
Outcome
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Comparison candidate | Other votes | Observed margin | Model margin | Party control | Incumbency | ||||
| House | 10th Suffolk | William F. MacGregor (D-Boston)* 14,838 votes |
Devin Allen Kreinbring (WP-Boston) 1,474 votes |
0 | D+81.9 | D+60.5 | D+45.9 to D+75.3 | +21.4 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| Senate | Norfolk and Plymouth | John F. Keenan (D-Quincy)* 40,211 votes |
Alexander Mendez (I-Quincy) 14,817 votes |
0 | D+46.1 | D+26.1 | D+11.3 to D+40.5 | +20.1 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| Senate | Worcester and Middlesex | John Cronin (D-Fitchburg)* 44,128 votes |
Ming Zhang (U-Westford) 11,252 votes |
0 | D+59.4 | D+40.7 | D+26.0 to D+55.5 | +18.6 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 2nd Plymouth | Sarah G. Hewins (D-Carver) 9,264 votes |
John Robert Gaskey (R-Carver)* 9,175 votes |
0 | D+0.5 (provisional) | R+15.8 | R+30.5 to R+1.2 | +16.3 | R to D flip (provisional) | Incumbent defeated (provisional) |
| House | 2nd Bristol | James Kimball Hawkins (D-Attleboro)* 9,986 votes |
Andrew Nelson (WP-Attleboro) 3,372 votes |
0 | D+49.5 | D+33.2 | D+18.5 to D+48.0 | +16.3 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 22nd Middlesex | Daniel Ronald Darris-O’Connor (D-Billerica) 8,968 votes |
Marc T. Lombardo (R-Billerica)* 8,530 votes |
0 | D+2.5 | R+13.6 | R+28.2 to D+0.9 | +16.1 | R to D flip | Incumbent defeated |
| House | 2nd Hampden | Brian Michael Ashe (D-Longmeadow)* 12,203 votes |
Peter Warren (R-Monson) 6,798 votes |
0 | D+28.4 | D+15.4 | D+1.1 to D+29.9 | +13.0 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 9th Plymouth | Bridget Marie Plouffe (D-Brockton)* 11,031 votes |
Lawrence Peter Novak (R-Brockton) 5,823 votes |
0 | D+30.9 | D+18.9 | D+4.3 to D+33.6 | +12.0 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| Senate | 1st Middlesex | Vanna Howard (D-Lowell)* 27,422 votes |
Sam Meas (R-Lowell) 12,435 votes |
7,072 | D+37.6 | D+25.8 | D+11.1 to D+40.8 | +11.8 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 6th Worcester | Jeanne Renaud Costello (D-Charlton) 6,101 votes |
John J. Marsi (R-Charlton)* 8,536 votes |
0 | R+16.6 | R+28.1 | R+42.8 to R+13.2 | +11.4 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| Senate | 2nd Bristol and Plymouth | Mark C. W. Montigny (D-New Bedford)* 34,268 votes |
Robert Scott McConnell (R-Fairhaven) 19,398 votes |
0 | D+27.7 | D+16.3 | D+1.4 to D+31.1 | +11.4 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 5th Norfolk | Mark J. Cusack (D-Braintree)* 10,676 votes |
Stephen M. Foley (U-Braintree) 4,702 votes |
0 | D+38.8 | D+49.7 | D+34.9 to D+64.5 | -10.9 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 16th Middlesex | Lorena G. Betts (D-Chelmsford) 7,933 votes |
Karla J. Miller (R-Lowell) 3,693 votes |
0 | D+36.5 | D+25.8 | D+10.8 to D+40.8 | +10.6 | D hold | Open-seat win |
| House | 7th Bristol | Alan Silvia (D-Fall River)* 4,623 votes |
Talos D. Farris (R-Fall River) 2,732 votes |
0 | D+25.7 | D+15.5 | D+0.7 to D+29.9 | +10.2 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 12th Plymouth | Kathleen LaNatra (D-Kingston)* 11,668 votes |
Eric J. Meschino (R-Plymouth) 9,025 votes |
0 | D+12.8 | D+22.6 | D+7.7 to D+37.4 | -9.8 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 7th Worcester | Nicholas Lazzaro (D-Millbury) 8,457 votes |
Paul K. Frost (R-Auburn)* 9,615 votes |
1,252 | R+6.4 | R+16.0 | R+30.8 to R+1.3 | +9.6 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 18th Worcester | Jenifer Heck (D-Sutton) 8,222 votes |
Joseph D. McKenna (R-Sutton)* 11,061 votes |
0 | R+14.7 | R+23.9 | R+38.4 to R+9.4 | +9.2 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| Senate | Middlesex and Worcester | James Bradley Eldridge (D-Marlborough)* 55,401 votes |
Joseph Timothy Shea (R-Acton) 19,844 votes |
0 | D+47.3 | D+56.1 | D+41.5 to D+70.7 | -8.9 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| Senate | Plymouth and Barnstable | Dylan A. Fernandes (D-Falmouth)* 55,533 votes |
Kari Della MacRae (R-Bourne) 37,153 votes |
0 | D+19.8 | D+28.3 | D+13.7 to D+43.3 | -8.5 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 5th Hampden | Patricia A. Duffy (D-Holyoke)* 8,360 votes |
Jose Ramon Candelario Gonzalez (I-Holyoke) 2,250 votes |
0 | D+57.6 | D+49.2 | D+34.0 to D+63.9 | +8.4 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 9th Essex | Peter Meaney (D-Lynn) 8,305 votes |
Donald H. Wong (R-Saugus)* 10,166 votes |
0 | R+10.1 | R+2.6 | R+17.2 to D+11.9 | -7.5 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 9th Bristol | Edward M. Pacheco (D-Dartmouth) 9,558 votes |
Chester M. Tam (R-Dartmouth) 7,483 votes |
0 | D+12.2 | D+5.0 | R+9.4 to D+20.0 | +7.2 | D hold | Open-seat win |
| Senate | Worcester & Hampshire | Shannon M. Teabo (D-West Brookfield) 32,322 votes |
Peter J. Durant (R-Spencer)* 37,881 votes |
0 | R+7.9 | R+14.5 | R+29.1 to D+0.2 | +6.6 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 2nd Essex | Kristin Elena Kassner (D-Hamilton)* 14,393 votes |
Daniel James Kelly (R-Ipswich) 9,929 votes |
0 | D+18.4 | D+24.2 | D+9.6 to D+38.9 | -5.9 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 4th Suffolk | David M. Biele (D-Boston)* 9,802 votes |
Charles J. Delaney (I-Boston) 2,711 votes |
0 | D+56.7 | D+50.8 | D+36.3 to D+65.6 | +5.8 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 10th Bristol | Mark D. Sylvia (D-Fairhaven)* 12,454 votes |
Brendalee A. Smith (R-Fairhaven) 8,526 votes |
0 | D+18.7 | D+24.5 | D+9.7 to D+39.2 | -5.8 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| Senate | 1st Bristol and Plymouth | Michael J. Rodrigues (D-Westport)* 32,898 votes |
Gabriel Boomer Amaral (R-Fall River) 24,594 votes |
0 | D+14.4 | D+20.1 | D+5.5 to D+34.8 | -5.6 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| Senate | 2nd Essex and Middlesex | Barry R. Finegold (D-Andover)* 48,790 votes |
Theodore T. Semesnyei (R-Amesbury) 27,820 votes |
0 | D+27.4 | D+32.9 | D+18.4 to D+47.5 | -5.5 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 1st Plymouth | Michelle L. Badger (D-Plymouth)* 14,221 votes |
David Michael Golden (R-Plymouth) 9,652 votes |
0 | D+19.1 | D+24.4 | D+9.8 to D+38.7 | -5.3 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 8th Bristol | Steven J. Ouellette (D-Westport)* 8,546 votes |
Jesse W. St. Gelais (R-Acushnet) 9,006 votes |
0 | R+2.6 | D+2.2 | R+12.5 to D+16.9 | -4.9 | D to R flip | Incumbent defeated |
| House | 18th Essex | Connor A. Murray (D-Andover) 11,758 votes |
Christopher C. Shepley (R-Andover) 7,295 votes |
0 | D+23.4 | D+18.6 | D+3.9 to D+33.3 | +4.8 | D hold | Open-seat win |
| House | 15th Essex | Ryan M. Hamilton (D-Methuen)* 10,756 votes |
Ronald L. Heiseler (R-Haverhill) 6,625 votes |
0 | D+23.8 | D+19.0 | D+4.3 to D+33.6 | +4.8 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 5th Essex | Andrew Francis Robert Tarr (D-Gloucester)* 14,347 votes |
Christina Delisio (R-Manchester-By-The-Sea) 7,071 votes |
917 | D+34.0 | D+38.7 | D+24.0 to D+53.6 | -4.7 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 5th Bristol | Jamison D. Souza (D-Somerset) 8,312 votes |
Justin E. Thurber (R-Somerset)* 10,048 votes |
0 | R+9.5 | R+13.9 | R+28.9 to D+1.1 | +4.5 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 3rd Hampden | Thomas D. Hendrickson (D-Agawam) 7,006 votes |
Nicholas A. Boldyga (R-Southwick)* 10,324 votes |
1,814 | R+19.1 | R+23.3 | R+38.0 to R+8.5 | +4.1 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 1st Franklin | Lora L. Wondolowski (D-Greenfield) 14,211 votes |
Amy E. Lavallee (U-Whately) 4,992 votes |
0 | D+48.0 | D+43.9 | D+29.2 to D+58.4 | +4.1 | D hold | Open-seat win |
| House | 8th Plymouth | Dennis C. Gallagher (D-Bridgewater)* 9,332 votes |
John Edward Norris (R-Bridgewater) 7,703 votes |
0 | D+9.6 | D+13.2 | R+1.7 to D+27.8 | -3.6 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 35th Middlesex | Paul J. Donato (D-Medford)* 10,256 votes |
James C. Seibel (R-Medford) 2,285 votes |
0 | D+63.6 | D+60.1 | D+45.1 to D+74.7 | +3.4 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 9th Norfolk | Thomas R. Melville (D-Medfield) 10,241 votes |
Marcus S. Vaughn (R-Wrentham)* 11,252 votes |
0 | R+4.7 | R+1.8 | R+16.5 to D+12.8 | -2.9 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 6th Bristol | Carole A. Fiola (D-Fall River)* 6,833 votes |
Robert G. Anctil (R-Freetown) 4,588 votes |
0 | D+19.7 | D+16.9 | D+2.2 to D+31.5 | +2.8 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 12th Worcester | Meghan Kilcoyne (D-Clinton)* 12,481 votes |
Lisa K. Mair (R-Berlin) 7,399 votes |
0 | D+25.6 | D+22.8 | D+8.0 to D+37.6 | +2.8 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 1st Barnstable | Christopher Lambton (D-Dennis) 15,028 votes |
Joe B. Glynn (GWV-Yarmouth) 6,798 votes |
0 | D+37.7 | D+35.3 | D+20.5 to D+49.9 | +2.4 | D hold | Open-seat win |
| House | 31st Middlesex | Michael Seamus Day (D-Stoneham)* 12,991 votes |
Stephen G. Ternullo (R-Stoneham) 6,058 votes |
0 | D+36.4 | D+34.1 | D+19.5 to D+48.6 | +2.3 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 20th Middlesex | Joseph Markey (D-Lynnfield) 11,919 votes |
Trevor David Currier (R-Middleton) 9,573 votes |
0 | D+10.9 | D+8.9 | R+5.8 to D+23.5 | +2.0 | R to D flip | Open-seat win |
| House | 4th Worcester | Natalie Marie Higgins (D-Leominster)* 8,075 votes |
Josh William Bowdridge (R-Leominster) 5,077 votes |
0 | D+22.8 | D+24.8 | D+10.4 to D+39.2 | -2.0 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 4th Hampden | Colby Walshe Hoffman (D-Westfield) 6,522 votes |
Kelly W. Pease (R-Westfield)* 10,060 votes |
0 | R+21.3 | R+19.7 | R+34.0 to R+5.1 | -1.6 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 7th Plymouth | Rosemary Aahanna-Hill (D-Whitman) 7,547 votes |
Alyson M. Sullivan-Almeida (R-Abington)* 10,689 votes |
0 | R+17.2 | R+18.8 | R+33.9 to R+3.8 | +1.6 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 5th Plymouth | Lori Childs (D-Rockland) 9,720 votes |
David F. DeCoste (R-Norwell)* 11,932 votes |
0 | R+10.2 | R+8.7 | R+23.6 to D+6.0 | -1.5 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 6th Plymouth | Jessica Marie Rushing (D-Pembroke) 9,182 votes |
Kenneth Peter Sweezey (R-Duxbury)* 11,094 votes |
0 | R+9.4 | R+8.1 | R+22.6 to D+6.4 | -1.3 | R hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 2nd Norfolk | Tackey Chan (D-Quincy)* 10,369 votes |
Sharon Marie Cintolo (R-Quincy) 3,966 votes |
0 | D+44.7 | D+45.9 | D+30.9 to D+60.8 | -1.3 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 3rd Barnstable | Jack Peter Richardson (D-Falmouth) 12,308 votes |
David T. Vieira (R-Falmouth)* 11,483 votes |
0 | D+3.5 | D+2.8 | R+11.9 to D+17.2 | +0.6 | R to D flip | Incumbent defeated |
| House | 3rd Bristol | Lisa M. Field (D-Taunton)* 9,068 votes |
Lawrence Joseph Quintal (R-Taunton) 6,490 votes |
0 | D+16.6 | D+17.1 | D+2.5 to D+31.9 | -0.5 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 5th Middlesex | David Paul Linsky (D-Natick)* 14,817 votes |
Luisa A. Cestari (R-Natick) 4,184 votes |
0 | D+56.0 | D+55.4 | D+40.7 to D+70.2 | +0.5 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 1st Middlesex | Margaret R. Scarsdale (D-Pepperell)* 12,217 votes |
Christopher M. Lyons (R-Ashby) 7,861 votes |
0 | D+21.7 | D+22.2 | D+7.3 to D+37.1 | -0.5 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 2nd Worcester | Michael Joseph Nicholson (D-Gardner) 8,453 votes |
John D. Reilly (U-Ashburnham) 6,729 votes |
0 | D+11.4 | D+11.0 | U+3.7 to D+25.7 | +0.4 | D hold | Open-seat win |
| Senate | Suffolk and Middlesex | William N. Brownsberger (D-Belmont)* 43,722 votes |
Brandon Charles Wood (U-Belmont) 4,543 votes |
0 | D+81.2 | D+80.8 | D+66.1 to D+95.8 | +0.3 | D hold | Incumbent re-elected |
| House | 1st Worcester | Krista Suzanne Ferrante (D-Princeton) 11,624 votes |
Stephanie R. Mulroy (R-Holden) 10,185 votes |
0 | D+6.6 | D+6.4 | R+8.3 to D+20.9 | +0.2 | R to D flip | Open-seat win |
| Unofficial AP results; snapshot November 06, 2026, 12:53 UTC. AP calls and precincts reporting are separate measures. | ||||||||||
| Bold indicates the AP-called winner. * Incumbent. | ||||||||||
| Margins and 75% forecast ranges use only the Democratic and comparison candidates' votes; other votes are shown separately. Blanks/write-ins excluded. Error = observed minus model, in percentage points; positive = more Democratic. Uncalled margins/errors are provisional. * Incumbent. Model: 14d-r2, finance cutoff October 20. | ||||||||||
Results compared to model forecast
All but six of the race outcomes fall within the model’s 75% predictive intervals. Each interval represents the range in which the model placed a 75% probability of that race’s result falling.
Four of the six outliers are instances of a Democrat facing a non-Republican. One of the other two outliers is the uncalled 2nd Plymouth race where challenger Sarah Hewins (D-Carver) seems to be significantly outperforming the R+15.8 model forecast against incumbent John Gaskey (R-Carver) with an 89-vote lead.
The remaining outlier is the 22nd Middlesex win by 19-year-old Daniel Darris-O’Connor (D-Billerica) over incumbent Marc Lombardo (R-Billerica).
Forecast error and performance versus the model
Democratic under-performance
Democratic over-performance
One dot per race. Hollow dot: provisional. The 75% window is approximate. Vote shares exclude blanks/write-ins. AP snapshot: November 06, 2026, 12:53 UTC.
Provisional result