Mass. Numbers

A quantitative look at Massachusetts politics and policy

First Suffolk Senate: Nick Collins faces a Wu-backed primary challenge

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu’s endorsement of Latoya Gayle sets up a high-profile primary challenge to incumbent Senator Nick Collins in a First Suffolk district that redistricting has quietly remade.

Potential 6th Congressional candidates

A look at elected officials whose districts overlap Seth Moulton’s 6th U.S. House district

Swing district special election results in a 17-vote margin for Democrat

Democrat Lisa Field wins Third Bristol special election to replace Carol Doherty by 17 votes

First post-presidential special election shows signs of Trump-era Democratic strength

Hannah Bowen won the Massachusetts 6th Essex State Rep district by a much higher margin than Kamala Harris six months ago

Massachusetts shifts towards Trump

Demographic factors associated with the shift include rates of college attendance, socio-economic status, race, and ethnicity

The top eight most competitive state legislative races

A mix of GOPs incumbents in swing districts and competitive open seats look to be the tightest races according to our fundamentals-based model

A look at the state primary results

There were ousted incumbents, some real nail-biters, and a slate of new name winners for open seats

State Primary Deep Dive

Contested primaries for the state legislature, Governor’s Council, Congress, and Senate

Will Boston neighborhoods play a role in the 10th Suffolk special election?

The three candidates bring a lot to the table including their home base.

Has your city or town gotten more Republican or Democratic over the last 50 years?

A municipality-based look at Massachusetts presidential voting from 1972 through 2020.

MA 2022 State Legislative Results

No major surprises when comparing race results to model fundamentals

A closer look at the Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex State Senate fundamentals

A multi-year shift in the region’s partisanship explains Democratic strength

MA 2022 State Senate General Election Ratings

A model-based evaluation of the contested Massachusetts State Senate races

MA 2022 State Representative General Election Ratings

A model-based evaluation of the contested Massachusetts State Representative races

Driscoll won Lieutenant Governor primary by having largest geographic reach

Lesser and Gouveia were not able to expand local support bases

An overview of the 2022 State Representative Primaries

A look at the MA State Representative contested primaries

An overview of the 2022 State Senate Primaries

A look at the ten contested MA State Senate primaries

A look at MA State Senate Redistricting

There are now six majority-minority state senate districts in Massachusetts but only three give minority voters a robust chance of electing their candidate of choice

Welcome to Mass. Numbers

Welcome to the Mass. Numbers blog. Mass. Numbers takes a quantiative look as Massachusetts politics and policy.